Uniform exponential convergence of sample average random functions under general sampling with applications in stochastic programming

AbstractSample average approximation (SAA) is one of the most popular methods for solving stochastic optimization and equilibrium problems. Research on SAA has been mostly focused on the case when sampling is independent and identically distributed (iid) with exceptions (Dai et al. (2000) [9], Homem-de-Mello (2008) [16]). In this paper we study SAA with general sampling (including iid sampling and non-iid sampling) for solving nonsmooth stochastic optimization problems, stochastic Nash equilibrium problems and stochastic generalized equations. To this end, we first derive the uniform exponential convergence of the sample average of a class of lower semicontinuous random functions and then apply it to a nonsmooth stochastic minimization problem. Exponential convergence of estimators of both optimal solutions and M-stationary points (characterized by Mordukhovich limiting subgradients (Mordukhovich (2006) [23], Rockafellar and Wets (1998) [32])) are established under mild conditions. We also use the unform convergence result to establish the exponential rate of convergence of statistical estimators of a stochastic Nash equilibrium problem and estimators of the solutions to a stochastic generalized equation problem

Stability and sensitivity analysis of stochastic programs with second order dominance constraints

In this paper we present stability and sensitivity analysis of a stochastic optimizationproblem with stochastic second order dominance constraints. We consider perturbation of theunderlying probability measure in the space of regular measures equipped with pseudometricdiscrepancy distance ( [30]). By exploiting a result on error bound in semi-infinite programmingdue to Gugat [13], we show under the Slater constraint qualification that the optimal valuefunction is Lipschitz continuous and the optimal solution set mapping is upper semicontinuouswith respect to the perturbation of the probability measure. In particular, we consider the case when the probability measure is approximated by empirical probability measure and show the exponential rate of convergence of optimal solution obtained from solving the approximation problem. The analysis is extended to the stationary points when the objective function is nonconvex

Disaster preparedness using risk-assessment methods from earthquake engineering

Due to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.Analyzing the uncertainties associated with disaster occurrences is critical to make effective disaster preparedness plans. In this study, we focus on pre-positioning emergency supplies for earthquake preparedness. We present a new method to compute earthquake likelihood and the number of the affected people. Our approach utilizes forecasting methods from the earthquake engineering literature, and avoids using probabilistic scenarios to represent the uncertainties related to earthquake occurrences. We validate the proposed technique by using historical earthquake data from Turkey, a country under significant earthquake risk. We also present a case study that illustrates the implementation of our method to solve the inventory allocation problem of the Turkish Red Crescen

Confidence Levels for CVaR Risk Measures and Minimax Limits*

Conditional value at risk (CVaR) has been widely used as a risk measure in finance. When the confidence level of CVaR is set close to 1, the CVaR risk measure approximates the extreme (worst scenario) risk measure. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis of the relationship between the two risk measures and it’s impact on optimal decision making when we wish to minimize the respective risk measures. We also investigate the difference between the optimal solutions to the two optimization problems with identical objective function but under constraints on the two risk measures. We discuss the benefits of a sample average approximation scheme for the CVaR constraints and investigate the convergence of the optimal solution obtained from this scheme as the sample size increases. We use some portfolio optimization problems to investigate teh performance of the CVaR approximation approach. Our numerical results demonstrate how reducing the confidence level can lead to a better overall performance

Multi-Attribute Utility Preference Robust Optimization: A Continuous Piecewise Linear Approximation Approach

In this paper, we consider a multi-attribute decision making problem where the decision maker's (DM's) objective is to maximize the expected utility of outcomes but the true utility function which captures the DM's risk preference is ambiguous. We propose a maximin multi-attribute utility preference robust optimization (UPRO) model where the optimal decision is based on the worst-case utility function in an ambiguity set of plausible utility functions constructed using partially available information such as the DM's specific preferences between some lotteries. Specifically, we consider a UPRO model with two attributes, where the DM's risk attitude is multivariate risk-averse and the ambiguity set is defined by a linear system of inequalities represented by the Lebesgue-Stieltjes (LS) integrals of the DM's utility functions. To solve the maximin problem, we propose an explicit piecewise linear approximation (EPLA) scheme to approximate the DM's true unknown utility so that the inner minimization problem reduces to a linear program, and we solve the approximate maximin problem by a derivative-free (Dfree) method. Moreover, by introducing binary variables to locate the position of the reward function in a family of simplices, we propose an implicit piecewise linear approximation (IPLA) representation of the approximate UPRO and solve it using the Dfree method. Such IPLA technique prompts us to reformulate the approximate UPRO as a single mixed-integer program (MIP) and extend the tractability of the approximate UPRO to the multi-attribute case. Furthermore, we extend the model to the expected utility maximization problem with expected utility constraints where the worst-case utility functions in the objective and constraints are considered simultaneously. Finally, we report the numerical results about performances of the proposed models.Comment: 50 pages,18 figure

Robust unit commitment with n - 1 security criteria

The short-term unit commitment and reserve scheduling decisions are made in the face of increasing supply-side uncertainty in power systems. This has mainly been caused by a higher penetration of renewable energy generation that is encouraged and enforced by the market and policy makers. In this paper, we propose a two-stage stochastic and distributionally robust modeling framework for the unit commitment problem with supply uncertainty. Based on the availability of the information on the distribution of the random supply, we consider two specific models: (a) a moment model where the mean values of the random supply variables are known, and (b) a mixture distribution model where the true probability distribution lies within the convex hull of a finite set of known distributions. In each case, we reformulate these models through Lagrange dualization as a semi-infinite program in the former case and a one-stage stochastic program in the latter case. We solve the reformulated models using sampling method and sample average approximation, respectively. We also establish exponential rate of convergence of the optimal value when the randomization scheme is applied to discretize the semi-infinite constraints. The proposed robust unit commitment models are applied to an illustrative case study, and numerical test results are reported in comparison with the two-stage non-robust stochastic programming model